2009 Pac-10 Football Preview

PAC-10 PREVIEW

 

(Each of my conference previews are determined in part by using a simple formula using certain nine variables to determine a teams ability to win games. These nine categories are as follows: Quarterback, RB/WR/TE, Offensive Line, DE/LB, Secondary, Coaching, Schedule Difficulty, Home Field Advantage, and Player Experience. Each team is ranked in descending order according to their strength in these areas. For example, the team in a conference with the best QB will be given a one, the second best rated team by QB will be given a 2, and on down through the remaining teams in that conference. This formula goes on for all categories. After all categories and teams are ranked, those rankings are added up to give the team’s a total score. The lower the score, the more likely a team will be successful this year and win more games than teams with higher overall scores. By no means is it an exact science, just my personal predictions for the upcoming season.)

 

 

For the past seven years, the Pac-10 conference has been more like “USC and the PAC-9”. The choke hold that Pete Carroll and his Trojans have had on the rest of the league has been rather impressive, similar to the way Florida State owned the ACC in the 1990’s. But with the loss of QB Mark Sanchez and a severe lack of experience on defense, can the Men of Troy keep the dominance going?

 

THREE BOLD PREDICTIONS

 

1. Jahvid Best will be in New York in December as a Heisman finalist. No, he’s not a quarterback, but he is an absolute speed demon who, despite not having much size, isn’t afraid to take a hit. Not to mention his moves, seen here:     He makes more cuts on the football field than Governor Schwarzenneger does to the California state budget.

2. Freshman QB Kevin Prince will lead UCLA back to a bowl. One of the most heralded recruits from 2007, Prince has the tools to make the Bruins at least competitive this year. Last year, 6 of UCLA’s 8 losses were by 20 points or more. Much of that was due to inconsistent play from their quarterbacks. Prince knows the system after one year as a redshirt, and is ready to step in with a capable offensive group around him.

3. Cal will dethrone USC and play in the Rose Bowl. The biggest question mark for both teams will be the quarterback position, but beyond that, Cal has much of the advantage. I don’t foresee either team ending undefeated, so all the chips will be on the table for their matchup in early October.

 

THREE GUYS READY FOR DRAFT DAY

 

1. Taylor Mays, S, USC- Could be the first DB taken in the draft. Great open field tackler with toughness.

2. Jahvid Best, RB, Cal- Speed. Quickness. If he stays healthy he’ll be like Barry Sanders at the next level. (Don’t get mad..I said LIKE.)

3. Dexter Davis, DE, Arizona St.- The only player in the nation to have recorded back-to-back double-digit sack seasons, Davis can get after the QB like few can.

 

Davis is hoping for his third straight double-digit sack season.

THREE “CAN’T MISS GAMES”

 

1. USC at Ohio St., September 12- Early test to prove just how “real” the Trojans are this year.

2. Cal at Oregon, September 26- The toughest road game for the Bears this season. They can’t look past Oregon to the next week’s matchup. The Ducks can play.

3. USC at Cal, October 3- There’s a good chance both teams come into this game undefeated, but either way, it will have a huge impact on who claims a trip to Pasadena on New Year’s Day.

 

Cal hasn't played in a Rose Bowl since 1959. Beating USC would help them get there.

 

THREE THINGS WE WON’T SEE THIS YEAR

 

1. A quick turnaround for Washington. Despite the end of the Ty Willingham era, Huskies’ fans won’t be eying bowl tickets just yet. Former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian will develop Washington into a contender eventually, and Jake Locker being behind center gives them glimmers of hope in 2010, but this season, expect much of the same.

2. A USC QB to make the All Pac-10 First Team. No Palmer. No Leinart. No Sanchez. No first team QB. Does that mean the cupboard is bare? Not at all. In fact, depth wise no one competes with USC in the QB department. But whether it’s Aaron Corp, Mitch Mustain, or Matt Barkley behind center, expect rookie mistakes this year from the Trojan gunslingers.

3. Dennis Erickson avoid the hot seat. That’s not to say he’ll get fired should the Devils miss a bowl berth again, but everyone expected more from ASU the past few years. They were thought to be one of the top teams in the Pac-10, but have quietly eroded into mediocrity. Now with the rise of rival Arizona, the Devils need to win and win soon.

 

THREE REASONS TO WATCH THE BIG EAST

 

1. The fall of Troy? Be it the Yankees, Lakers, or New England Patriots, every sport has their most hated team. That hate breeds typically from jealousy of a team’s success. In college football, USC is that team. There’s no question of the tremendous success that the Trojans have experienced. For the first time in a long time, however, they’re not a clear cut favorite to win the Pac-10. Tons of football fans will be watching just to cheer on anyone NOT named Southern Cal.

2. Jake Locker. He may be the best QB that you’ve never heard of. Despite playing on bad teams, Locker has provided some offensive spark to an engine otherwise dead. Perhaps now with a new coach, Locker can get some help so he doesn’t have to do it all on his own. Think of Locker as a poor man’s Colt McCoy.

   

   Locker leads a revived Huskies' offense.

3. The “Civil Wars”. This could be one of the better year’s in recent memory for the conference’s rivalries. Oregon/Oregon State probably being the most notable, especially since both teams should be strong. USC/UCLA will garner more attention, as will Arizona/Arizona State.

 

BOWL QUALIFIERS

Cal, USC, Oregon State, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona

 

2009 Big East Football Preview

BIG EAST PREVIEW

 

(Each of my conference previews are determined in part by using a simple formula using certain nine variables to determine a teams ability to win games. These nine categories are as follows: Quarterback, RB/WR/TE, Offensive Line, DE/LB, Secondary, Coaching, Schedule Difficulty, Home Field Advantage, and Player Experience. Each team is ranked in descending order according to their strength in these areas. For example, the team in a conference with the best QB will be given a one, the second best rated team by QB will be given a 2, and on down through the remaining teams in that conference. This formula goes on for all categories. After all categories and teams are ranked, those rankings are added up to give the team’s a total score. The lower the score, the more likely a team will be successful this year and win more games than teams with higher overall scores. By no means is it an exact science, just my personal predictions for the upcoming season.)

 

 

 More and more, predicting the Big East is getting to be like predicting the Kentucky Derby winner. Sure there is always a favorite, but any other horse seems just as capable of running away with the prize. Here’s a look at what will take place in the upcoming season, though trust me, everything could completely flip around (Well, not completely. I’ll put $50 on Syracuse NOT winning the Big East this year).

 

Can the Mountaineers run past the rest of the Big East and reclaim the conference crown?

THREE BOLD PREDICTIONS

 

1. West Virginia’s Defense will be the driving force to them winning the conference title.  That’s right. Defense. After all, the team known for flashy talent on offense did manage to rank 11^th nationally last year in scoring defense. And of course the offense is capable to score big even with the loss of superstar QB Pat White. Look for WVU to hold off a hungry Rutgers team and claim the Big East championship.

2. UConn will nearly double their loss total from last year and miss out on a bowl.  That’s a tough pill for Husky fans to swallow after having a successful year last year, one that started off with 5 straight wins. However, with the loss of big time RB Donald Brown to the NFL draft and several other key offensive components, the Huskies will search quickly to find a new offensive identity. That coupled with the most difficult schedule in the conference has the Huskies spending the holidays watching the bowls instead of playing in one.

3. Rumors will swirl again regarding Greg Schiano going to Miami.  There’s no question that many Hurricane fans were disappointed a few years ago when Greg Schiano decided not to take the head job at Miami. However, should the Canes continue their mediocrity in this, Randy Shannon’s 3^rd year, and if that combines with a great season similar to what Rutgers is expected to have, then look for the rumor mill to start up again regarding Schiano. What he’s done at Rutgers with their football program, recruiting, and national exposure to the school is nothing short of miraculous. Trust me, going to 4 straight bowls at Rutgers is a BIG deal.

 

THREE GUYS READY FOR DRAFT DAY

 George Selvie, DE, South Florida–-Don’t let the lack of sacks last year by Selvie fool you. That was more an issue of constant double teams after his huge 2007. This kid is a pass rushing monster. He already has 25.5 sacks for his career, and there’s nothing to keep him from adding to that total this season.

 

 

 

USF's star defensive end Selvie should have a huge senior year.

 

 

Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia—It’s almost as if Steve Slaton never left. Devine, now a junior, racked up nearly 1,300 yards rushing last year, averaging 6.3 per carry. His size is small, but that won’t matter when he’s running a 4.2 40 at the combine.

Anthony Davis, T, Rutgers–-Only a junior, Davis weighs in at 6 feet 6 inches, 325 pounds. Not bad for a left tackle. Expect this guy to be a first round pick barring injury.

 

THREE “CAN’T MISS GAMES”

 

1. West Virginia at South Florida, Oct. 30- Always seems to be a tough game for the Mountaineers. They’ll need to win it to keep their sights on the Big East title.

2. West Virginia at Rutgers, Dec. 5- Could be a de facto championship game. Both teams certainly have the talent. Can they avoid letdowns earlier in the season?

3. Cincinnati at Pitt, Dec. 5- Depending on the outcome of WVU-Rutgers, this game could have title implications of it’s own. Keep an eye on Cincy QB Tony Pike, one of the nation’s most underrated QBs.

 

 

THREE THINGS WE WON’T SEE THIS YEAR

 

1. Louisville be relevant. Remember when the road to the Big East crown went through Louisville? Not anymore. Another bowl-less season for the Cards, and Kragthorpe will find himself on the hot seat (if he’s not there already).

2. An undefeated team in conference. Like I said earlier, this conference always has at least 3 or 4 teams vying for the title, and it’s damn near impossible to pick just one. While I do think West Virginia will hoist the trophy at the end, they won’t make it through unscathed.

3. The conference champ decided before Thanksgiving. There are several key conference games (as mentioned earlier) that come after turkey day that will play big roles in who comes out of this conference a winner. And really, that’s your hope in every conference, that the last few weeks are the most exciting.

 

THREE REASONS TO WATCH THE BIG EAST

1.  The new White and Slaton (Jarrett Brown and Noel Devine). -Don’t think just because Pat White and Steve Slaton are gone from the West Virginia offense that the flash and speed days are over.

2.  Coaching carousel.  -Is this the year the young rising star coaches get plucked from the Big East? Greg Schiano from Rutgers, Brian Kelly at Cincinnati, and Jim Leavitt at South Florida have all been a part of various rumors in recent years. Is this the year one of these guys leaves for a big time gig in the SEC or Big 12?

 

 

 

Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly could be targeted by some big name programs if the Bearcats have another big year.

 

 

3.  It’s the most unpredictable conference.  -Like I said, you never know really what to expect from the Big East. You know the names. You know the schools. You just don’t know which one will be left standing once the dust settles. That fact alone makes this conference greatly intriguing.

 

BOWL QUALIFIERS

West Virginia, Rutgers, Pitt, Cincinnati, South Florida