NCAA Football Week One: Top Ten Games

10.  Western Michigan @ Michigan – Do or die time for Rich Rod and company.  Anything less than a 2 TD win here only darkens the cloud of his short tenure in Ann Arbor   Prediction: Michigan 35, W. Mich. 13

9.  Baylor @ Wake Forest -  This game was a lopsided affair last year in favor of Wake 41-13.  This year it should be much closer.  Two of the most underrated QB’s in action>  Robert Griffin (Baylor) and Riley Skinner (Wake).  Prediction: Baylor 27, Wake Forest 21

8. Cincinnati @ Rutgers-  Last year’s Big East champ meets one of this year’s favorites.  The Knights lose some big play makers, but a solid secondary should help them contain Bearcat QB Tony Pike.  Prediction:  Rutgers 23, Cincinnati 20

7.  South Carolina @ NC State-  The Wolfpack are much improved this year, starting with QB Russell Wilson.  The question will be can he lead this team past one of the SEC’s stingiest defenses?  Homefield advantage wins this one.  Prediction: NC State 24, S. Carolina 23

6.  Nevada @ Notre Dame- OK Irish fans, let’s hear it.  How great you’ll be this year, how you’re BCS bound, how 10 wins is a “worst case scenario”.  I don’t buy it yet.  Nevada had the 5th overall offense in the nation last year.  Hope Charlie Weis has his team focused.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 37, Nevada 31

5.  Miami @ Florida State- Who would’ve thought we’d see the day that this became an unappealing matchup of two “has beens”?  The Seminoles are creeping back to relevance, but they’re still a few years away.  Miami may be light years away.  Prediction: Florida St. 37, Miami 24

4.  Oklahoma vs. BYU- No doubt the Cougars will be ready for this game.  At a “neutral” site, BYU has the chance to play lead in a big upset.  Max Hall can throw the ball, and the Sooners porous pass D is bound to give up some yards.  Look for a shootout.  Prediction: Oklahoma 45, BYU 35

3.  Oregon @ Boise St.-  Is there anyone out there that doesn’t root for the team with the Blue Turf?  Boise State has managed to be one of the top college programs NOT from a BCS conference.  Should be fun to see their D try to contain Oregon’s potent offense.  Prediction: Boise State 31, Oregon 26

2.  Georgia @ Oklahoma St.- The Dawgs defense will have their hands full with a Cowboy offense that managed 40.8 PPG last year.  All their playmakers return, making this trip for Georgia a rough one.  Prediction: Oklahoma St. 39, Georgia 29

1.  Alabama vs. Virginia Tech-  The prime time special will feature two programs coming off BCS bowl appearances.  VT lost starting RB Darren Evans about a month ago, but the D is still in tact.  Look for a close, low scoring affair that goes down to the wire.  Prediction: Va. Tech 23, Alabama 20

Setting up the 2009-10 Bowl Matchups and Conference Winners

CONFERENCE WINNERS

SEC: FLORIDA over Alabama

BIG TEN: OHIO ST.

BIG 12: TEXAS over Kansas

ACC: VIRGINIA TECH over Florida St.

PAC-10: CALIFORNIA

BIG EAST: WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAIN WEST: TCU

CONF. USA: HOUSTON over East Carolina

WAC: BOISE ST.

MAC: CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo

SUN BELT: TROY

 

BCS BOWLS

TITLE GAME: Texas vs. Florida

ROSE: Ohio St. vs. California

SUGAR: Alabama vs. Boise St.

FIESTA: USC vs. Oklahoma St.

ORANGE: Va. Tech vs. W. Virginia

OTHER BOWLS

HUMANITARIAN: Colorado St. vs. Nevada

NEW MEXICO: Utah vs. La. Tech

POINSETTIA: BYU vs. Arizona

LAS VEGAS: TCU vs. UCLA

NEW ORLEANS: Southern Miss vs. Fla. Atlantic

ARMED FORCES: Tulsa vs. Air Force

HAWAII: East Carolina vs. Fresno St.

LIBERTY: Houston vs. South Carolina

MOTOR CITY: Michigan vs. Central Mich.

OUTBACK: Illinois vs. Georgia

CAPITAL ONE: Penn St. vs. Ole Miss

ST. PETERSBURG: Arkansas St. vs Marshall

PAPAJOHNS.COM: Cincinnati vs. MTSU

INTERNATIONAL: S. Florida vs. Bowling Green

TEXAS: Kansas St. vs. Navy

INDEPENDENCE: Nebraska vs. Kentucky

INSIGHT: Baylor vs. Northwestern

SUN: Colorado vs. Rutgers

ALAMO: Kansas vs. Iowa

HOLIDAY: Texas Tech vs. Oregon St.

COTTON: Oklahoma vs. LSU

GMAC: Wake Forest vs. Buffalo

EAGLE BANK: NC State vs. Memphis

EMERALD: Boston Coll. vs. Oregon

MEINIKE CAR CARE: Miami vs. Pittsburgh

MUSIC CITY: North Carolina vs. Auburn

CHAMPS SPORTS: Clemson vs. Michigan St.

GATOR: Ga. Tech vs. Notre Dame

CHIK-FIL-A: Tennessee vs. Florida St.

2009 Big 12 Football Preview

BIG 12 PREVIEW

 

(Each of my conference previews are determined in part by using a simple formula using certain nine variables to determine a teams ability to win games. These nine categories are as follows: Quarterback, RB/WR/TE, Offensive Line, DE/LB, Secondary, Coaching, Schedule Difficulty, Home Field Advantage, and Player Experience. Each team is ranked in descending order according to their strength in these areas. For example, the team in a conference with the best QB will be given a one, the second best rated team by QB will be given a 2, and on down through the remaining teams in that conference. This formula goes on for all categories. After all categories and teams are ranked, those rankings are added up to give the team’s a total score. The lower the score, the more likely a team will be successful this year and win more games than teams with higher overall scores. By no means is it an exact science, just my personal predictions for the upcoming season.)

 

 

Last year we saw a Top 25 dominance by the Big 12 not seen in years. 7 Big 12 teams were Top 25 mainstays during various times of the season. However, the parity in the league was limited to the South division for the most part. Who will emerge as the big dog from the Big 12 this year?

 

THREE BOLD PREDICTIONS

 

1. Baylor will end the longest “bowl-less” streak in the nation. The Bears of Baylor, long known for football futility, seem to have finally righted the ship under the leadership of Art Briles. Now entering his 7^th season, Briles has all the pieces in place to make a run for a bowl. It’s been 14 years since that’s happened at Baylor, a streak that ties Duke for the longest without making a bowl game. 18 returning starters and perhaps the best sophomore QB in the nation (Robert Griffin) will lead Baylor back to a bowl.

2. Texas QB Colt McCoy will be drafted higher than Sam Bradford.  Numbers may not prove it, but of these 2 quartebacks, McCoy is the best. Overall stats won’t show it, but to really determine it, look at the numbers of the QBs amongst their toughest competition. Against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State, McCoy averaged 361 yards passing and a 78.2 completion percentage per game. He also threw for 5 touchdowns and only 2 picks during those 3 games. Give me the QB that plays better against tough competition. 
   

   McCoy has all the abilities to be a start at the next level. (Photo courtesy of austinchronicle.com)

     

3. Oklahoma State, not Oklahoma, will be the bigger test for Texas. The Cowboys proved their manhood last year, finishing the year with 9 wins and ranked 6^th nationally in total offense. They return the core of their offense, including QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, and Heisman dark horse WR Dez Bryant. This ‘Boys will have plenty of steam to throw up big points on the board, and have what it takes to knock out their rival Sooners.

 

THREE GUYS READY FOR DRAFT DAY

 

1. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State- Phenomenal talent. Bryant caught 87 passes last year for 1,480 yards. 19 of those 87 were for touchdowns. If he can remain healthy (he suffered a knee injury in the Holiday Bowl) then there’s no reason he can’t finish with over 100 catches, 20 touchdowns, and be the first WR taken in the draft.

2. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas- As I mentioned earlier, when it comes to big games, McCoy is a master. His scrambling ability is also key. His 76.7% completion percentage from 2008 is a NCAA record. Can be a first-year starter for a NFL team.

3. Ndamukong Suh, DE, Nebraska- The only thing tougher than pronouncing his name is his defensive ability. This guy is a ball hawk, and can rip through any offensive line. He had 7.4 sacks last year, as well as 19 tackles-for-loss. He’s improved each year, so expect his senior season to be a true breakout year for this nose tackle.

    

    

   

   Suh will give Big 12 quaterbacks nightmares this season. (Photo courtesy of daylife.com)

    

THREE “CAN’T MISS GAMES”

 

1. Georgia at Oklahoma State, September 5- First game for Cowboys is a big test. If they can win this one, it will open eyes across the nation. The Boys are for real.

2. Texas vs. Oklahoma, October 17-

   The Red River Shootout at the Texas State Fair is always a barn burner. This year, look for Texas to walk away winners again. If they don’t, there’s a big shakeup in the Big 12 South. 

   

   Screw the petting zoo and ferris wheel at the state fair, give me football! (Photo courtesy of sbnation.com)

    

3. Texas at Oklahoma State, October 31- Should both teams make it here undefeated, this could be a BCS Title play-in game.

 

THREE THINGS WE WON’T SEE THIS YEAR

1. Missouri win the Big 12 North. Losing stud QB Chase Daniel was bad enough, but returning only 10 starters from last year’s Big 12 North title team is even worse. The Tigers have a manageable schedule, but with the other Big 12 North teams improving, look for a season to forget for Mizzou.

2. Texas Tech’s offense to slow down. A lot of people think losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree would doom the Red Raiders to failure in 2009, but I see quite the opposite. The system Mike Leach put in place is one to assure lots of passing and lots of points. New QB Taylor Potts will have some struggles, but will still put up huge numbers for Tech. There is a bit of a drop off at wide receiver, but not enough to where the Raiders can’t win 8 or 9 games.

3. Patience from Aggie fans (if there’s no bowl this year). There were some (okay…a lot) of Texas A&M fans who questioned the hire of Mike Sherman, one that seemed more like “settling” than anything else. In his first season, he did little to satisfy his detractors. 7 of the team’s 8 losses were by 14 or more points, and the one loss that was close was to (gulp) Arkansas State. Ouch. Still, returning 17 players has fans feeling some good things about this year’s team. Competing in the Southern division of the Big 12, however, won’t make things easy for Sherman to avoid the hot seat.

 

THREE REASONS TO WATCH THE BIG 12

 

1. The Race for the South. If things pan out the way many experts are predicting, we could see the best 3-team race for a division in years. Texas is the slight favorite, with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State not far behind. The wealth of offensive talent from these three teams alone make the Big 12 worth tuning in to this season.

2. The future of NFL quarterbacks. Sure, the numbers are a bit inflated in a league that seemingly plays no defense. But you can’t ignore what Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford have done the past few years. Add on to those guys lesser-known QB potential “studs” like Kansas’ Todd Reesing, Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson, and Baylor’s Robert Griffin, and the field generals of the Big 12 look like future Sunday regulars.

3. Bill Snyder’s return to Kansas State. Anyone who has followed college football knows just how good Kansas State used to be. In his 17 years of coaching at Kansas State, Snyder won 136 games, including 3 Big 12 North titles and a Big 12 conference title. Now with Snyder back at the helm, hopes are reignited among Wildcat faithful. If Snyder manages 6 wins this year, K-State fans should be pleased.

 

BOWL QUALIFIERS

Texas, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, Colorado, Kansas St., Nebraska