Setting up the 2009-10 Bowl Matchups and Conference Winners

CONFERENCE WINNERS

SEC: FLORIDA over Alabama

BIG TEN: OHIO ST.

BIG 12: TEXAS over Kansas

ACC: VIRGINIA TECH over Florida St.

PAC-10: CALIFORNIA

BIG EAST: WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAIN WEST: TCU

CONF. USA: HOUSTON over East Carolina

WAC: BOISE ST.

MAC: CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Buffalo

SUN BELT: TROY

 

BCS BOWLS

TITLE GAME: Texas vs. Florida

ROSE: Ohio St. vs. California

SUGAR: Alabama vs. Boise St.

FIESTA: USC vs. Oklahoma St.

ORANGE: Va. Tech vs. W. Virginia

OTHER BOWLS

HUMANITARIAN: Colorado St. vs. Nevada

NEW MEXICO: Utah vs. La. Tech

POINSETTIA: BYU vs. Arizona

LAS VEGAS: TCU vs. UCLA

NEW ORLEANS: Southern Miss vs. Fla. Atlantic

ARMED FORCES: Tulsa vs. Air Force

HAWAII: East Carolina vs. Fresno St.

LIBERTY: Houston vs. South Carolina

MOTOR CITY: Michigan vs. Central Mich.

OUTBACK: Illinois vs. Georgia

CAPITAL ONE: Penn St. vs. Ole Miss

ST. PETERSBURG: Arkansas St. vs Marshall

PAPAJOHNS.COM: Cincinnati vs. MTSU

INTERNATIONAL: S. Florida vs. Bowling Green

TEXAS: Kansas St. vs. Navy

INDEPENDENCE: Nebraska vs. Kentucky

INSIGHT: Baylor vs. Northwestern

SUN: Colorado vs. Rutgers

ALAMO: Kansas vs. Iowa

HOLIDAY: Texas Tech vs. Oregon St.

COTTON: Oklahoma vs. LSU

GMAC: Wake Forest vs. Buffalo

EAGLE BANK: NC State vs. Memphis

EMERALD: Boston Coll. vs. Oregon

MEINIKE CAR CARE: Miami vs. Pittsburgh

MUSIC CITY: North Carolina vs. Auburn

CHAMPS SPORTS: Clemson vs. Michigan St.

GATOR: Ga. Tech vs. Notre Dame

CHIK-FIL-A: Tennessee vs. Florida St.

2009 Big 12 Football Preview

BIG 12 PREVIEW

 

(Each of my conference previews are determined in part by using a simple formula using certain nine variables to determine a teams ability to win games. These nine categories are as follows: Quarterback, RB/WR/TE, Offensive Line, DE/LB, Secondary, Coaching, Schedule Difficulty, Home Field Advantage, and Player Experience. Each team is ranked in descending order according to their strength in these areas. For example, the team in a conference with the best QB will be given a one, the second best rated team by QB will be given a 2, and on down through the remaining teams in that conference. This formula goes on for all categories. After all categories and teams are ranked, those rankings are added up to give the team’s a total score. The lower the score, the more likely a team will be successful this year and win more games than teams with higher overall scores. By no means is it an exact science, just my personal predictions for the upcoming season.)

 

 

Last year we saw a Top 25 dominance by the Big 12 not seen in years. 7 Big 12 teams were Top 25 mainstays during various times of the season. However, the parity in the league was limited to the South division for the most part. Who will emerge as the big dog from the Big 12 this year?

 

THREE BOLD PREDICTIONS

 

1. Baylor will end the longest “bowl-less” streak in the nation. The Bears of Baylor, long known for football futility, seem to have finally righted the ship under the leadership of Art Briles. Now entering his 7^th season, Briles has all the pieces in place to make a run for a bowl. It’s been 14 years since that’s happened at Baylor, a streak that ties Duke for the longest without making a bowl game. 18 returning starters and perhaps the best sophomore QB in the nation (Robert Griffin) will lead Baylor back to a bowl.

2. Texas QB Colt McCoy will be drafted higher than Sam Bradford.  Numbers may not prove it, but of these 2 quartebacks, McCoy is the best. Overall stats won’t show it, but to really determine it, look at the numbers of the QBs amongst their toughest competition. Against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State, McCoy averaged 361 yards passing and a 78.2 completion percentage per game. He also threw for 5 touchdowns and only 2 picks during those 3 games. Give me the QB that plays better against tough competition. 
   

   McCoy has all the abilities to be a start at the next level. (Photo courtesy of austinchronicle.com)

     

3. Oklahoma State, not Oklahoma, will be the bigger test for Texas. The Cowboys proved their manhood last year, finishing the year with 9 wins and ranked 6^th nationally in total offense. They return the core of their offense, including QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, and Heisman dark horse WR Dez Bryant. This ‘Boys will have plenty of steam to throw up big points on the board, and have what it takes to knock out their rival Sooners.

 

THREE GUYS READY FOR DRAFT DAY

 

1. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State- Phenomenal talent. Bryant caught 87 passes last year for 1,480 yards. 19 of those 87 were for touchdowns. If he can remain healthy (he suffered a knee injury in the Holiday Bowl) then there’s no reason he can’t finish with over 100 catches, 20 touchdowns, and be the first WR taken in the draft.

2. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas- As I mentioned earlier, when it comes to big games, McCoy is a master. His scrambling ability is also key. His 76.7% completion percentage from 2008 is a NCAA record. Can be a first-year starter for a NFL team.

3. Ndamukong Suh, DE, Nebraska- The only thing tougher than pronouncing his name is his defensive ability. This guy is a ball hawk, and can rip through any offensive line. He had 7.4 sacks last year, as well as 19 tackles-for-loss. He’s improved each year, so expect his senior season to be a true breakout year for this nose tackle.

    

    

   

   Suh will give Big 12 quaterbacks nightmares this season. (Photo courtesy of daylife.com)

    

THREE “CAN’T MISS GAMES”

 

1. Georgia at Oklahoma State, September 5- First game for Cowboys is a big test. If they can win this one, it will open eyes across the nation. The Boys are for real.

2. Texas vs. Oklahoma, October 17-

   The Red River Shootout at the Texas State Fair is always a barn burner. This year, look for Texas to walk away winners again. If they don’t, there’s a big shakeup in the Big 12 South. 

   

   Screw the petting zoo and ferris wheel at the state fair, give me football! (Photo courtesy of sbnation.com)

    

3. Texas at Oklahoma State, October 31- Should both teams make it here undefeated, this could be a BCS Title play-in game.

 

THREE THINGS WE WON’T SEE THIS YEAR

1. Missouri win the Big 12 North. Losing stud QB Chase Daniel was bad enough, but returning only 10 starters from last year’s Big 12 North title team is even worse. The Tigers have a manageable schedule, but with the other Big 12 North teams improving, look for a season to forget for Mizzou.

2. Texas Tech’s offense to slow down. A lot of people think losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree would doom the Red Raiders to failure in 2009, but I see quite the opposite. The system Mike Leach put in place is one to assure lots of passing and lots of points. New QB Taylor Potts will have some struggles, but will still put up huge numbers for Tech. There is a bit of a drop off at wide receiver, but not enough to where the Raiders can’t win 8 or 9 games.

3. Patience from Aggie fans (if there’s no bowl this year). There were some (okay…a lot) of Texas A&M fans who questioned the hire of Mike Sherman, one that seemed more like “settling” than anything else. In his first season, he did little to satisfy his detractors. 7 of the team’s 8 losses were by 14 or more points, and the one loss that was close was to (gulp) Arkansas State. Ouch. Still, returning 17 players has fans feeling some good things about this year’s team. Competing in the Southern division of the Big 12, however, won’t make things easy for Sherman to avoid the hot seat.

 

THREE REASONS TO WATCH THE BIG 12

 

1. The Race for the South. If things pan out the way many experts are predicting, we could see the best 3-team race for a division in years. Texas is the slight favorite, with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State not far behind. The wealth of offensive talent from these three teams alone make the Big 12 worth tuning in to this season.

2. The future of NFL quarterbacks. Sure, the numbers are a bit inflated in a league that seemingly plays no defense. But you can’t ignore what Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford have done the past few years. Add on to those guys lesser-known QB potential “studs” like Kansas’ Todd Reesing, Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson, and Baylor’s Robert Griffin, and the field generals of the Big 12 look like future Sunday regulars.

3. Bill Snyder’s return to Kansas State. Anyone who has followed college football knows just how good Kansas State used to be. In his 17 years of coaching at Kansas State, Snyder won 136 games, including 3 Big 12 North titles and a Big 12 conference title. Now with Snyder back at the helm, hopes are reignited among Wildcat faithful. If Snyder manages 6 wins this year, K-State fans should be pleased.

 

BOWL QUALIFIERS

Texas, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, Colorado, Kansas St., Nebraska

 

 

Your College Bowl Viewing Guide and Prognostications

Unsure of what games to watch and what to ignore this upcoming bowl season?  Not to worry!  Yours truly has taken the time to weed out the snoozers and help ensure you don’t waste your time on meaningless games.  As some general rules of thumb, note the following:

-Games that include teams that you A) don’t know the names of any players, or B) don’t know any coaches, or C) you can’t even name any notable alumni from either school, those bowls are best avoided.

-Bowls named after food or companies that make food are generally good games. 

-Any bowl named after a website is likely not worth viewing.

-Yes, it is okay to continue to refer to the Chik-fil-A Bowl as the Peach Bowl.  Because dang it, that’s the way any SEC or ACC fan will always think of it, and you should too.

Now I’ve broken the bowls down into 4 categories, ranging from the worst games to watch to the best ones.  Now, on to the bowls!

 

The “I Forgot The Game Was Even On” Bowls

EAGLE BANK BOWL- Wake Forest vs. Navy

It’s rare to have a bowl game set up to rematch a regular season game, but that’s what we have here.  Navy won in Winston-Salem earlier this year thanks to some Demon Deac turnovers.  I think Jim Grobe has his team turned around here though and ready to play.  Wake Forest 27, Navy 24

NEW MEXICO BOWL- Colorado St. vs. Fresno St.

Colorado St. suprised some with 6 wins and a bowl bid in Steve Fairchild’s first year.  Meanwhile Fresno disappointed after many believed they were the BCS buster team to beat this year.  Fresno St. 37, Colorado St. 28

MAGIC JACK ST. PETERSBURG BOWL- Memphis vs. South Florida

Like Fresno, USF is another disappointing team.  Memphis is accustomed to playing in these lame duck bowls, but USF expects more now.  Look out for an emotionally letdown Bulls team to struggle.  Memphis 44, USF 41

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL- Southern Miss vs. Troy

Was there really not another company that could sponsor this bowl?  Sheesh, talk about lame.  Troy’s got a stingy D, and that may be the difference in this one.  Troy 26, So. Miss. 13

MOTOR CITY BOWL- Fla. Atlantic vs. Cent. Michigan

As fun as a trip to Detroit in late-December sounds, you gotta think the Owls would like to be a bit closer to home.  Look for a shootout between two exciting QBs.  CMU 41, FAU 38

INDEPENDENCE BOWL- No. Illinois vs. La. Tech

The city of Shreveport will be asking Santa to place some extra coal in the SEC’s stocking this year, as their ineptitude at getting 8 bowl eligible teams has forced the Independence Bowl to take No. Illinois instead.  Give a slight edge to the home-state team.  La. Tech 37, No. Illinois 31

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL- NC State vs. Rutgers

How the papajohns.com bowl doesn’t get played at Papa Johns Stadium is beyond confusing, but I digress.  Rutgers is down a bit this year, and struggled to get into a bowl.  NC State did as well, but after their start, any bowl bid granted was a nice consolation.  Tom O’Brien has the Pack playing well.  NC State 28, Rutgers 17

ROADY’S HUMANITARIAN BOWL- Maryland vs. Nevada

The Smurf Turf Bowl features the nation’s best rushing attack.  Nevada should be able to run all day on the Terps.  Question is will the Terps be able to keep up?   Nevada 31, Maryland 24

TEXAS BOWL- West. Michigan vs. Rice

One of the best passing offenses (Rice) vs. one of the worst pass defenses (WMU).  You do the math.  Rice 38, WMU 30

INSIGHT.COM BOWL- Kansas vs. Minnesota

Kansas certainly hoped for more, but none the less this could be an interesting game.  Minnesota played very well at times this year, but got bombed 55-0 in their finale against Iowa.  I give Kansas a slight edge.  Kansas 24, Minnesota 21

GMAC BOWL-  Ball St. vs. Toledo

What do Alex Rodriguez and Cardinal’s QB Nate Davis have in common?  Neither are clutch performers.  Davis was personally responsible for 5 turnovers in their MAC title game loss to Buffalo.  After that loss, this bowl game lost all interest it had to begin with (which was very little).  Toledo 34, Ball St. 28

 

The “I’ll Watch It If There Are No Reruns Of The Office, Family Guy, or Madden Nation On” Bowls

HAWAII BOWL- Hawaii vs. Notre Dame

So let me get this right: the Irish such it up, have an awful season, get a lame bowl bid, and STILL get a trip to Hawaii?  Something’s not right.  Hawaii isn’t the same team we’re used to either.  The Irish may actually win.  Notre Dame 26, Hawaii 23

ARMED FORCES BOWL- Houston vs. Air Force

Dynamic passing vs. dynamic running.  Passing score more quick points.  Houston 45, Air Force 39

BRUT SUN BOWL- Oregon St. vs. Pittsburgh

The Beavers were a Civil War win away from a rematch with Penn St. in the Rose Bowl.  Instead OSU gets to go to a bowl named after a cologne cheap enough for Wal-Mart to stock.  Nice.  Oregon St. 31, Pitt 27

MUSIC CITY BOWL-  Boston College vs. Vandy

Bowls just aren’t fair.  BC makes it to the ACC title game for the second straight year, yet gets stuck playing in a lame bowl in Nashville.  Vandy makes it to their first bowl since 1749, and they don’t even get to leave town.  Blech!  BC 27, Vandy 20

ORANGE BOWL- Cincinnati vs. Va. Tech

Yes, I know this is a BCS game, and as much as I want to see the ACC do well, the fact is as long as the Big East is sorta lame at football too, this game will have little meaning.  Still I like what Cincy has done under Brian Kelly, but VT has an incredibly talented defense to be so young.  VT 20, Cincy 14

LIBERTY BOWL- Kentucky vs. East Carolina

Kentucky has been a rather ho-hum SEC team this year, not having any big wins, but have remained competitive for the most part.  ECU shocked the world with beating VT, and managed to win the C-USA.  I think they come in a little more ready to play.  ECU 23, Kentucky 14

The “Worth At Least A Bag Of Popcorn” Bowls

LAS VEGAS BOWL- BYU vs. Arizona

BYU has been a consistent team all year.  Arizona seems to be finding it’s way back to football relevance.  Should be an interesting game to watch.  BYU 31, Arizona 29

MEINIKE CARE CARE BOWL- North Carolina vs. West Virginia

What has happened to the Mountaineers?  They were Big East title shoe-ins before this season started.  Now a bowl loss will leave many WVU fans questioning the Bill Stewart hire.  And just imagine how could the Tar Heels would have been if they had a healthy offense all season?  UNC 27, WVU 26

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL- Wisconsin vs. Florida St.

Bobby Bowden would like to get back to top ten status at some point before he retires.  This year’s team was certainly better than last year’s, and they get to play a downtrodden Wisconsin team, one of the most disappointing squads in Division I this year.  Florida St. 25, Wisconsin 18

EMERALD BOWL- Miami vs. California

The Hurricanes are slowly righting the ship, but a long trip out west against a very talented Cal team may prove to be too big a test for this young team to handle.  Cal 34, Miami 21

ALAMO BOWL- Missouri vs. Northwestern

Two exciting offenses matchup here, with a great passing attack against a strong running game.  Mizzou wanted more than this out of their season, but won’t turn down a chance to beat a Big 10 team.  Mizzou 37, N’western 28

HOLIDAY BOWL- Oklahoma St. vs. Oregon

The potent Cowboy offense will have to keep up with an equally impressive Duck offense.  The running game of Kendall Hunter proves to be the difference in this one.  Oklahoma St. 42, Oregon 37

OUTBACK BOWL- S. Carolina vs. Iowa

It should be fun to see the SEC’s best defense try to stop one of the best runners in the nation (Iowa’s Shon Greene).  We all know the track record of the SEC vs. Big 10.  I think Iowa plucks one away from the Ol’ Ball Coach here, however.  Iowa 23, S. Carolina 21

CAPITAL ONE BOWL- Georgia vs. Michigan St.

Another SEC/Big 10 showdown.  Can UGa shut down Javon Ringer?  I think this will be a close one, but the better QB wins.  That QB is Matthew Stafford.  Georgia 31, Mich. St. 28

SUGAR BOWL- Utah vs. Alabama

Another BCS game not making our top-tier of bowls.  Bama was one quarter away from playing for all the marbles.  Instead, they get the chance to flex their muscle and hand a non-BCS school their first loss of the season.  Consider mission accomplished.  Oh, and go ahead and mark Bama vs. Florida in next year’s SEC title game as well.  Alabama 30, Utah 17

INTERNATIONAL BOWL- Buffalo vs. UConn

Yep, that’s right.  A game not even played on U.S. soil makes it this far up the list.  That’s because Buffalo, who hasn’t been to a bowl since, well, bowls were invented, is the MAC champion.  They’ll get to matchup against the nation’s top rusher in Donald Brown.  Honestly, I can’t remember the last time I was eager to see a MAC team play.  Buffalo 17, UConn 15

The “Order Me An Extra-Large Pizza Fully Loaded and a Twelve Pack of Mountain Dew Code Red and Don’t Dare Touch The TV for The Next 4 Hours” Bowls

POINSETTIA BOWL- Boise St. vs. TCU

It’s rare a non-BCS team bowl matchup brings such excitement, but with two teams as impressive as these are, you should mark your calendars to watch it.  Why?  First, Boise St. is undefeated.  Secondly, both teams are ranked in the top 11.  Third, Boise has the nation’s 13th best offense while TCU has the 2nd best defense.  This WILL be a good game, and maybe even the best bowl of them all.  TCU 24, Boise St. 22

CHIK-FIL-A, errr…PEACH BOWL- LSU vs. Ga. Tech

Boy did LSU fall off the map.  And just as quick as they did, Georgia Tech jumped on it.  After drubbing in-state rivals Georgia, the Ramblin’ Wreck hopes to accomplish a SEC fan’s worst nightmare: beat two huge SEC schools back-to-back.  Les Miles, good luck with stopping Jonathan Dwyer and the triple-option.  Ga. Tech 31, LSU 25

GATOR BOWL- Clemson vs. Nebraska

Go ahead, call me a homer, placing this game so high up the ladder.  First, you need to know the significance of this one.  This is the first meeting I believe of the two school’s since Clemson’s Orange Bowl win over the Huskers in 1981 to win the national championship.  Two months ago, Tiger fans would’ve been happy with any bowl.  Two first year coaches meet head-to-head.  Which QB will step up?  Cullen Harper or Joe Ganz?  Clemson 28, Nebraska 22

ROSE BOWL- Penn St. vs. USC

It’s hard to figure just how good Penn State is after their upset loss to Iowa.  They’ll matchup with the kings of the west and one of the best defenses around.  Not to mention it’s basically a home game for USC.  USC 39, Penn St. 24

COTTON BOWL- Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech

How Graham Harrell gets excluded from the Heisman list is beyond me, but here’s his chance to prove his worth (again).  Ole Miss has been a surprise team this year, and is looking to gain national exposure with a win over former BCS media darlings Texas Tech.  Texas Tech 40, Ole Miss 34

FIESTA BOWL- Texas vs. Ohio St.

So Mack Brown, your team beat Oklahoma on neutral ground by 10 points, and you didn’t get in the BCS title game?  Yep, it’s a messed up world.  But here’s your chance to prove you belong in Miami by hammering Ohio State.  Can Terelle Pryor show up in the clutch?   Texas 35, Ohio St. 24

BCS TITLE GAME- Florida vs. Oklahoma

This may be one of the best title game matchups we’ve seen in a while.  Certainly the best one since USC/Texas from a few years back.  Florida is just sick with talent and speed on both sides of the ball.  Oklahoma will hang 60 on anybody, no questions asked.  First one to 70 wins?  Okay, maybe not that much scoring, but it should be exciting to watch.

Florida 45, Oklahoma 41